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2016年04月17日（日）10時48分
Overview of Japanese Business Aircrafts as of End 2015
|
Executive Summary Number of Japanese Business Aircrafts 1.Number of aircraft in Japan as of end 2015 was approximately 3,200 (3,196). 2.Out of which 1,100 (1,134) or little over 1/3 were military aircrafts 3.Out of remaining 2,000 (2,062), 688 were airliners,209 para-public and 330 individual owners. 4.Remaining 800 (835) were categorized as business aircrafts. 5.Absence of global legal definition of business aircraft creates wide differences in counting. 6.Use by individual owners for business cannot be pinned down precluding as business aircrafts. 7.On other side, aircrafts owned by small business entity may be used for private leisure. 8.Figures shown here eliminates individually owned aircrafts but include all of corporate fleet. 9. .It is unavoidable that arbitrary discretions are applied and this report is of no exception. 10 No efforts were made to align differences between statistics employing different assumptions. 11.For easy memory, total aircrafts are 3,200 , containing civil 2,000 and business aircrafts 800. 12.Business aircrafts incorporate entire fixed-wing aircrafts (jet+turbo+piston) and rotorcrafts. 13.Jets plus turbo are commonly called as “Narrowly Defined Business Aircrafts. 14.Piston aircrafts and rotorcrafts are added to make up “Broadly Defined Business Aircrafts” 14.Figures shown here are to present broad picture without engaging in minute differences.
. Overall Position of Japan in Global Market
1.Global business aircrafts may reach 85,000 during 2016, Asia-Pacific sharing approx. 10%. 2.Japanese business aircrafts are 800 plus. Japan’s global share is 1% and 10% of Asia-Pacific. 3.Fleet is mostly low cost aircrafts so that share of replacement value can be much lower. 4. Japan has mature transportation networks with multiple choices and alternatives available. 5.Distances of Japan to US East coast /Europe are 10,000㎞obliging to shoulder substantial cost 6.Government policy was to provide affordable airfare by airliner’s mass transportation. 7.Business /first class airfares are between ￥25~50/㎞. Business jet costs 50~100 times more. 8.Overwhelming majority of blue chip corporate senior managers are salaried employees. 9.Differences of airfare of commercial airliner v.s business jet will not justify use of latter.. 10.Reason for absence of business aircraft usage is prohibitive differences in actual airfares..
Remaining Potentiality for Use of Business Aircraft in Japan 1.Japan is a small island nation with established web of sophisticated transportation networks. 2.Close examination reveals that there are pockets of inconvenient spots albeit short distances 3.Japan own 352 low cost light rotorcrafts under-performing at average 150 hours per year. 4.Japan must be able to host flood of visitors from near-by China, Korea and Asian nations. 5.Target of alluring 20 MM visitors by 2020 was almost achieved and revised to 40 MM. 6.Overseas re-visitors wish to visit less known rural areas where good old Japan remains. 7.Rural communities have awaken to economic value of alluring cash rich sightseeing visitors. 8.Local governments are eager to attract business communities to revive regional economies. 9.Traffic congestion necessitates use of short ride air taxi to beat the ground traffics congestion. 10.In 2015, 110 MM passengers utilized Narita/Haneda , 3% or 3,300,000 used ground taxi. 11.It takes 70 / 30 minutes by ground taxi to reach center of Tokyo but by air taxi 20 / 8 minutes. 12.Supply side of industry is well organized by aircraft suppliers, operators, maintenance shops. 13.For the first time consortium of user oriented demand side groups are being organized 14. They include rural governments, big corporations, travel agents and tour related firms. 15.What is needed is coordinated efforts of supply / demand side to devise workable scenario. 17. Japan has ready resources of low cost rotorcrafts, operators, pilots and market potentiality. 18.Market can anticipate new era of expansion by effectively mobilizing available resources. 19.This can be achieved by cooperative efforts of both supply and demand sides joining hands.. 20.Feasibilty study indicates that affordable air taxi fare to common user is within arm reach. 21.While Robinson Helicopter is active Bell, Airbus and other suppliers participation is sought. |
Overall Summary of Number of Aircrafts in Japan
Ministry of Defense White Paper 2015, Japanese Registration 2016
|
Total |
Fixed Wing |
Rotorcraft |
|
|
Military Air Land Marine |
1,134 572 387 175 |
508 422 8 78 |
626 150 379 97 |
|
Civil Public/Parapublic Airline/Regional Individual Owner Business Aircraft |
2,062 209 688 330 835 |
1,251 40 639 255 317 |
811 169 49 75 518 |
|
Military/Civil Total |
3,196 |
1,759 |
1,437 |
World’s Top 5 Military Aircraft Owner Nations
World Airforces 2016
|
World |
U.S.A. |
Russia |
China |
India |
Japan |
|
|
Fleet |
52,107 |
13,717 |
3,547 |
2,942 |
2,086 |
1,590 |
|
Share |
100.0% |
26.3% |
6.8 |
5.6 |
4.0 |
3.1 |
Japanese military aircrafts were 1,134 as of March 31,2015 according DOD White Paper
Japan’s Business Aircrafts Among Global Fleet
JETET 2015 Report
|
World |
Asia-Pacific |
Japan |
China |
|
|
Fleet |
83,461 |
7,872 |
1,148 |
948 |
|
Share |
100% |
9.4 |
1.375% |
1.136% |
Asian share is increasing. By end 2016, it should reach approx. 10% of world share.
Para-Public Business Aircrafts
Japanese Registration 2016
|
Type |
List Price |
Number |
Owner |
Registered Date |
|
Gulfstream V |
$50 MM |
2 |
Coast Guard |
2004/1/12~ |
|
Gulfstream IV |
$42 MM |
2 |
MLIT |
1993/09/21 |
|
Global Express |
$50 MM |
2 |
MLIT |
2002/10/02~ |
|
Citation 680 |
$16 MM |
1 |
JAXA |
2011/08/25 |
|
SAABB2000 |
$6~10 MM |
3 |
MLIT |
1998/12/11~ |
|
SAABB340B |
$6~10 MM |
4 |
Coast Guard |
2007/0/23~ |
|
Bombardier DHC402-8-315 |
$17 MM |
1 |
Coast Guard |
2009/01~ |
|
Beech B300 |
$7 MM |
9 |
Coast Guard |
1999/02~ |
|
Citation CJ4 |
$9 MM |
3 |
MLIT |
1.MLIT : Ministry of Land Infrastructure, Transportation and Tourism
2.JAXA : Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency
3.MLIT announced retirement of 2 Gulfstream IV, and 2 Global Express in 2013.
5.Further ,3 SAAB B200 will be replaced by 3 Citation CJ4..
6, MLIT have unified type of business jet with less expensive light jet to save cost
7. Business jets owned by self-defense force were excluded from public registration data.
8. In any event, there is not a single business jet priced above $ 18 MM in civil sector.
9. Consolidation of types of aircrafts by MLIT will serve as road model for civil sector.
10. Civil sector must organize activities to rationalize maintenance and operating cost.
Japanese Civil Aircrafts As of End 2015
Japanese Registration 2016
|
Type |
Total |
Business |
Public |
Airline/Commuter |
Private |
|
Jet Twin Multiple |
582 567 15 |
24 24 0 |
8 6 2 |
549 536 13 |
1 1 0 |
|
Turbo-Prop Single Twin |
129 28 101 |
37 25 12 |
27 １ 26 |
64 1 63 |
1 1 0 |
|
Total |
711 |
61 |
35 |
613 |
2 |
|
Piston Single Twin |
540 489 51 |
256 241 15 |
5 4 1 |
26 9 17 |
253 235 18 |
|
Rotorcraft Piston Single Turbine Single Turbine Twin |
811 177 175 459 |
518 113 142 263 |
169 0 12 157 |
49 3 16 30 |
75 61 5 9 |
|
Total |
1,351 |
774 |
174 |
75 |
328 |
|
Grand Total |
2,062 |
835 |
209 |
688 |
330 |
Past 7 Years Trend of Japanese Civil Aircrafts
Japan Civil Aviation Promotion Foundation/Japanese Registration 2016
|
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
Share |
|
|
Piston Single |
568 |
570 |
511 |
503 |
501 |
489 |
488 |
23.5% |
|
Piston Twin |
46 |
54 |
54 |
54 |
53 |
51 |
55 |
2.6 |
|
Turbo Single |
23 |
24 |
23 |
26 |
28 |
28 |
30 |
1.5 |
|
Turbo Twin |
101 |
113 |
113 |
102 |
100 |
101 |
102 |
4.9 |
|
Jet Twin |
455 |
474 |
479 |
513 |
546 |
567 |
587 |
28.2 |
|
Jet Multiple |
68 |
36 |
18 |
17 |
17 |
15 |
15 |
0.7 |
|
Fixed-Wing Total |
1,246 |
1,247 |
1,187 |
1,208 |
1,245 |
1,251 |
1,277 |
61.4 |
|
Rotorcraft |
777 |
781 |
777 |
789 |
805 |
811 |
801 |
38.6 |
|
Grand Total |
2,023 |
2,028 |
1,964 |
1,997 |
2,050 |
2,062 |
2,078 |
100.0 |
Price of Business Aircrafts Used in Japan
|
Type |
List Price |
Use in Japan |
|
Jets Modified Airliner Heavy Middle Light Very Light Jet |
$100~400,000,000 $50~68.000.000 $18~26,000,000 $7~16,000,000 $2~4,500,000 |
200 times difference between $2~400 MM 2 (Boeing 747-2 00) owned by government No civil business aircraft, only ,military and public 2 Citation 680 exist in Japan 22 light business jets available in Japan |
|
Turbo-Props Single Twin |
$2~4,700.000 $2.5~8,500,000 |
Existing Fleet and Business Aircraft End 2015 Total 30。Business 27 Total 102、Business 12 |
|
Piston Single Twin |
$360~1,200,000 $840~1,400,000 |
Existing Fleet and Business Aircraft End 2015 Total 488。Business 240 Total 55。Business 15 |
|
Rotorcrafts Piston Single Turbine Single Turbine Twin |
$288~460,000 $868~3,500,000 $3.6~22,000,000 |
Total 801, Business 508 Total 172, Business 113 Total 170, Business142 Total 459, Business 263 |
1.2 Boeing 747-200 will be retired by 2018 replaced by 3 Boeing 777-300ER.
2. There are Gulfstream IV, V owned by Self-Defense Force for visiting foreign VIPs.
3.There are 9 civil light jets available for foreign VIP but very limited use by Japanese.
4.Even corporate executives do not use business aircraft because of high cost.
5.Even light jets cost 50~100 times of commercial airline or regional commuters airfare.
6.Even low cost rotorcrafts currently costs 3~5 times that of ground taxis.
7Potentiality remains as air taxi in remote regions or saving time to beat ground traffics
Asia-Pacific Country Share of Rotorcrafts
Asian Sky Group 2016 Report
|
Rank |
Country |
End 2015 |
Share |
End 2014 |
Year Change |
|
1 |
Australia |
2,094 |
34.8% |
2,028 |
+3% |
|
2 |
New Zealand |
841 |
14.0 |
758 |
+7 |
|
3 |
China Mainland Hong Kong Taiwan Macao |
764 694 30 39 1 |
12.7 (11.5) (0.5) (0.6) (0.1) |
648 576 30 41 1 |
+12 +20 0 -5 0 |
|
4 |
Japan |
762 |
12.7 |
782 |
-3% |
|
5 |
India |
304 |
5.1 |
304 |
0 |
|
6 |
Korea |
216 |
3.6 |
212 |
+2 |
|
7 |
Philippines |
200 |
3.3 |
186 |
+8 |
|
8 |
Indonesia |
199 |
3.3 |
185 |
+8 |
|
9 |
Malaysia |
165 |
2.7 |
169 |
-2 |
|
10 |
Papua New Guinea |
114 |
1.9 |
105 |
+9 |
|
11 |
Thailand |
112 |
1.9 |
111 |
+1 |
|
12 |
Guam |
29 |
0.5 |
28 |
+4 |
|
13 |
Vietnam |
27 |
0.4 |
27 |
0 |
|
Others |
188 |
3.1 |
215 |
-3 |
|
|
Region Total |
6,015 |
100.0 |
5,758 |
+1 |
Share of Top 5 was 79.3%、Top 10 was 94.1%。
Japanese Registration Statistics of Rotorcraft
Public Registration 2015
|
End 2015 |
Share |
End 2014 |
Change ％ |
|
|
Piston Single |
172 |
21.5% |
177 |
-2.9% |
|
Turbine Single |
170 |
21.2 |
175 |
-2.9 |
|
Turbine Multiple |
459 |
57.3 |
459 |
0 |
|
Total |
801 |
100.0 |
811 |
-1.3 |
1. Japanese Registration statistics remains as most reliable information source.
2.Above figures differ from overseas survey reports but no effort was made to align..
Change in Numbers of Rotorcrafts in Japan
Japan Civil Aviation Promotion Foundation、Public Registration 2015
|
2006 |
2007 |
2008 |
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
|
|
Number |
778 |
773 |
768 |
777 |
781 |
777 |
789 |
805 |
811 |
801 |
|
Piston |
160 |
169 |
171 |
177 |
181 |
184 |
182 |
179 |
177 |
172 |
|
Turbine Single Twin |
618 258 360 |
604 237 367 |
597 220 377 |
600 201 399 |
600 193 407 |
593 177 416 |
607 176 431 |
626 179 447 |
634 175 459 |
629 170 459 |
1.Relative global position of Japan is eroding as number exhibits flat or little growth.
2. This is most evident within Asia-Pacific where growth remains strong.
3 .Size of country, availability of public transportation network must be considered
4. Japan’s land space is 1/25 of China and population 1/11.
5. Japan is size of Montana. People live in size of Delaware due to mountainous terrain.
6. Densely populated cities are connected by web of low cost public transportations.
7. Growth potentiality still remains by lowing cost by cross- industry collaboration,
8. Market for “Yellow Cab Air Taxi” potentiality remains untapped.
Increase of Rotorcrafts in China
Asian Sky Group 2016 Report
|
2009 |
2010 |
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 Est. |
|
260 |
302 |
357 |
419 |
511 |
648 |
764 |
840 |
|
+42 |
+55 |
+62 |
+92 |
+137 |
+116 |
+76 |
|
|
+16.2% |
+18.2 |
+17.4 |
+22.0 |
+26.8 |
+17.9 |
+10.0 |
+11 |
Age of Japanese Single Rotorcrafts
Japanese Registration 2016
|
Number |
Under 7 Y |
Share |
8∼15 Years |
Share |
Over 15 Y |
Share |
|
|
Piston |
177 |
28 |
15.8% |
94 |
53,1 |
55 |
31.1 |
|
Turbine |
175 |
27 |
15.4 |
5 |
2.9 |
143 |
81.7 |
|
Total |
352 |
55 |
15.6 |
99 |
28.1 |
198 |
56.3 |
1. China increased rotorcrafts from 260 to 764 within 7 years. 2/3 of them age below 7.
2. 15% of rotorcraft in Japan is less than 7 years old while 85% are age beyond 7 years.
3. Other way of looking is, 85% of rotorcrafts in operation are fully depreciated.
4. If depreciated aircrafts are bought at present value and leased back cost will be reduced.
5. It is essential to achieve operating hours beyond 300h/yr. to be competitive.
6. Industry average is 150hrs/y, top performer 260hrs/y, smaller operator below 100hrs/y
Number by Rotorcraft Suppliers in Asia-Pacific Region
Asian Sky Group 2016 Report
|
Robinson |
Airbus |
Bell |
Agusta |
MD |
Sikorsky |
Others |
|
1,882 |
1,599 |
1,195 |
303 |
248 |
206 |
582 |
Robinson, Airbus, Bell are best represented in region followed by Agusta, MD, Sikorsky.
Rotorcraft Suppliers to Top 5 Asia-Pacific Countries
Asian Sky Group 2016 Report
|
Australia |
New Zealand |
Mainland China |
Japan |
India |
|
|
Robinson |
1,061 |
308 |
233 |
149 |
17 |
|
Bell |
447 |
100 |
91 |
130 |
88 |
|
Airbus |
298 |
222 |
151 |
340 |
120 |
|
Agusta Westland |
48 |
9 |
35 |
87 |
38 |
|
Sikorsky |
35 |
4 |
52 |
31 |
5 |
|
Others |
205 |
198 |
132 |
25 |
36 |
|
Grand Total |
2,094 |
841 |
694 |
762 |
304 |
Rotorcraft as Business Aircrafts in Japan
Japanese Registration 2016
|
Type |
Total Number |
Share |
Biz Aircraft |
Share |
|
Piston Single R-22 R-44 Robinson Total Others Total |
179 62 100 162 17 |
90.5％ 9.5% |
106 32 58 90 16 |
59.2 84,9% 15.1 |
|
Turbine Single AS-350 Other Airbus Airbus Heli Total Bell Helicopter Total Robinson Total Others Total |
179 88 17 105 58 5 11 |
58.7% 32.4％ 2.8% 6.1％ |
156 84 16 100 42 4 10 |
87.2 64.1% 26.9% 2.6% 6.4% |
Usage Share within Asia-Pacific
Asian Sky Group 2016 Report
|
Multi-Use |
Corporate |
Private |
Training |
Offshore |
SAR |
Charter |
EMS |
|
45% |
16 |
12 |
6 |
6 |
4 |
3 |
3 |
Use Fare of Various Transportation Alternatives v.s. Business Aircrafts
Base Index Number of Business Aircraft 100
|
Types |
Use Location |
Use Fare |
Distance |
Per km Cost |
Multiple |
|
Airliner First Class Business Class Biz Aircraft Business Class First Class Biz Aircraft |
Round Trip Haneda-Beijin Haneda-Beijin Haneda-Beijin Narita-New York Narita-New York Narita-New York |
￥300,000 200,000 15,000,000 400~800,000 1.1~2,000,000 40,000,000 |
￥4,200/㎞ 4,200 4,200 20,000 20,000 20,000 |
￥71/㎞ 48 3,571 20~40 55~100 2,000 |
2 1.3 100 1~2.2 2.8~5 100 |
|
Exp Train 1st Class Tokyo Yamate Line Airliner Round Trip Regional Airline Reg. Air. Highest Biz Aircraft Round |
Tokyo-Osaka one-way
Line Average Haneda-Sapporo Japan Average Island in Tokyo Average |
18,960 ￥250 30,000
11,530 |
553 15.1~20 1,660
70 |
34 12.5~17
30 165 1,200~1,500 |
2.3~2.8 0.8~1.4 1.2~1.5 2~2.5 11~14 100 |
|
Narita Express Ground Taxi Pre-Set Taxi Hired Car Planned Air Taxi |
Narita-Tokyo Narita-Tokyo Narita-Tokyo Narita-Tokyo Narita-Tokyo |
14,450
20,000
30~40,000 |
552.6㎞ \330/900m 70㎞ ￥90/280ｍ 65 ㎢ |
26.1 367 286 321 462~615 |
7.1 100 78 87 126~168 |
Multiple of options available are shown as index applying business aircraft as 100.
Use fare of most commonly used public transportations are decisively lower.
No executives of blue chip companies will use business aircraft with this differences
Remaining untapped market is short distance/time use of “Yellow Cab Air Taxi”
Even this virgin market requires industry-wise consolidation to justify the economy.
Passengers of Narita/Haneda alone exceeded 110 MM during 2015.
MLIT’s survey reveals that 3% of passengers used ground taxi or 3,300,000/ y.
Ground taxi in Tokyo was 49,447 in 2014 or 20.3% of 243,247 throughout Japan.
Economy may be justified by use of “Yellow Cab Air Taxi” for short time/distance.
In order to do so, air taxi fare must be contained within 1.5~ 2 times of ground taxi.
Various computer simulations suggest target be achieved by joint ownership/operation.
Joint ownership means join forces for cross-industry collective purchasing/leasing.
Joint operation will promote smaller operators’ consolidation or code sharing
By ground taxi, Narita-Tokyo 70 min., Haneda-Tokyo 30 min. ,air taxi 20 and 8 min.
Mid-upper management personnel’s manpower cost is ￥4,000/hr or $40/hr.
Full manpower cost is \30~50,000/hr or $300~500/hr which is not fully understood.
Full manpower cost takes into account total corporate indirect costs.
Business reasoning of use of business aircraft is to buy precious time by money
Business aircraft will always be high without consideration of time/manpower savings.
Productivities of Japanese white/silver/gold colored employees are relatively low.
There remains confusion between Japanese high productivity of blue color workers.
Desk workers need to be educated to translate time saving into manpower saving.
There is simple conversion software developed by NBAA years ago.
It is relatively simple software that needs to be modified to reflect Japanese realities.
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